Democratising pandemic forecasting

Please note: this event is ONLINE only.

Every week modelling teams from around the world submit forecasts of COVID-19 case numbers, hospitalisations and death counts (in the US) to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) uses these forecasts to build a single ensemble forecast which is communicated to public health officials and used to guide decision-making.  The forecasts from individual modelling teams are scored for accuracy and their accuracy scores are used to improve ensemble forecasts over time.

This talk will highlight some of the hidden value assumptions built into the CDC’s forecasting evaluation methodology. The speaker will propose ways to democratise pandemic forecasting by outsourcing these value choices to stakeholders.

Dr Jason Konek, University of Bristol