WORLD AFFAIRS
OLDER PEOPLE IN CONTROL?: PROSPECTS FOR THE
NEW MILLENNIUM
Introduced by Dr Roger Cloet, on 19 June 1998.
Dr Cloet is active in the University of the Third Age both locally
and nationally. Old age may be taken as beginning from the age of
60 or 65, the widely used age points for retire ment from paid employment.
In practice a
recent Career Guidance policy paper adopted as definition of the Third
Age an age of 45+ because: ‘45 is now the approximate point at
which age can begin to present both men and women with significant
(and for many, acute) problems in securing suitable employment.’
This has to be seen in the context of the demographic development
which clearly indicates changes in the age profiles in all European
countries, and indeed in many across the world, such as Japan.
The U.K.population was 38 million in 1901 and is due to reach 60 million
by 2011. However, the percentage in the younger age groups continues
to decrease. Even in the southern European countries and Ireland,
which reputedly have had relatively high birth rates, the number of
children per family has dropped to levels lower than for the northern
European countries, where it is 1.6:1. In Ireland it has dropped since
1972 from about 4:1 to around 1.3 to 1.5:1 by 1995. In each case well
below replacement level even when taking account of the much improved
surviv ability of the new-born.
In Spain the number of under-twenties will have decreased between
1995 and 2025 by 17%. In Germany the
decrease over the same period is expected to be 12%.The reasons for
this may be varied and diverse.The coincidence that the current unemployment
level in Germany also happens to be 12% could allow us to speculate
that the politicians may congratulate themselves on a possibly painless
solution to their unemploy ment problem.
The decrease in the under-20s population for the U.K.is estimated
at 8% over the same period. These figures have to be seen in the context
of an increase of the over-sixties population of 52% in Germany and
43% in the U.K.
The statistics are even more startling for countries such as the Netherlands,
where the increase is expected to be 79% by 2025. The number of ‘gainfully’
employed people is bound to continue to fall so that the burden imposed
upon them by those drawing a pension will increase, although with
a smaller number of children per family, that may be somewhat moderated.
Recent studies by sociologists and gerontologists have begun to conclude
that the ability of older people to learn new technology remains unimpaired
for longer than had previously been thought. The ability to adapt
is retained better than was generally assumed.Yet the great majority
of employers confine their recruiting to the age band of 27 to 35
in spite of claiming that they need to pay more attention to the experience
and skills possessed by the older population. The 'old' are currently
in a position where they can choose how to contribute to the well-being
of the community by helping themselves to the fullest extent possible.They
may have some misgivings about being too forceful in doing so because
few wish to compete with the age group of their own children.They
are already playing an increasing role in the voluntary or charity
sector.The monetary value of this in GDP terms is probably under estimated.
Before long it may well be that they will become deprived of the luxury
of choice. Financial constraints could lead to policies to compel
greater numbers to rejoin the work force, or more probably pensionable
age may become further deferred. It is up to the Third Age to decide
whether they will wait to respond to pressure or take an initiative.
Roger Cloet
