LECTURE

BEYOND THE MILLENNIUM - WHAT SHALL WE DO ON MONDAY?

A Lecture by Francis Kinsman on 18 September l998.

Francis Kinsman is a businessman and consultant, broadcaster and author, telework promoter and Times columnist. As a
futurist, however, he based his talk on the imminence of the millennium and the prospects before us.

People are sceptical of futurologists, since quantitative forecasts (such as those attempted by a Treasury faced with 236 variables) are clearly problematic, but qualitative judgments may be more reliable. His analysis of many political, economic, social and technological developments likely to be faced beyond the millennium is based on current
trends.
First he discussed the so-called ‘millennium bug’ which results from computer chip programmes unable to cope with the entailed date changes. His expert sources confirm that we cannot predict exactly what will happen, although we can envisage what may result on Monday 3 January 2000 (or before).
Public and private devices worldwide may be radically upset wherever such chips control them. Those affected may include traffic lights, lifts, air traffic control, satellites, domestic services of many kinds, defence systems, essential public and social services, etc. - an extending scenario. “Nobody knows how many chips are subject to this problem.” One consequence may be opportunist crime waves, looting and rioting. Globally, financial and security arrangements could be inoperative.
These implications do not result from either media hype or commercial ploys.
Turning to troubleshooting, it is possible to conclude that too little has been done, too late. Yet there are some positive features. British
financial institutions and those responsible for essential services will probably take effective measures in time. Apart from the US, the UK, Holland and Scandinavia, however, adequate preparation seems unlikely - for example, concern for EMU currently preoccupies Europe. Programmes to locate, service and test a multiplicity of systems must take more time than is now available. Taking an optimistic view, the speaker posited a disturbed period of three or four years beyond the millennium before major problems are resolved, while advising avoidance of driving, flying or seeking medical services over the crucial weekend itself. (The pessimistic view was not described!)
Apart from that period of millennial disturbance there are more general matters to consider. Recognition of systemic change must replace the Newtonian mechanistic model - chaos and complexity theories are now vital for human welfare. The increasing pace of change will compel us to develop new behavioural rules. The speaker’s lengthy list of predicted ‘discontinuities’ in the post-millennial period is subject to problems posed by interactivity of probabilities and we must freshly appraise our current ‘dreamworld’. Despite some
post-cold-war changes, capitalism remains as before. We must develop a holistic view of the world, based upon interdependencies and a balance of elements. Such elements include ‘humanity’ (relying as much on human understanding as upon technology), ‘flexibility’ (of organisations and individuals), ‘innovation and creativity’, ‘intuition’ (balancing emotion with logic), ‘co-operation/communication /cross-culture’ (across generations, peoples, etc.) and finally, ‘ethics’ (Aristotelian principles for the ‘best life’ for individuals and organisations). We need energy and vision if we are collectively to build a new world.
The ensuing lengthy discussion turned mainly on the millennial threat - the significance of ‘embedded chips’ and ‘legacy software’, sequence and calendar (e.g.leap year) issues, etc., resetting computer calendars and the need to print extra bank notes to allow for a run on the banks before the change of date. The speaker urged sanity rather than panic.“There is another way”. Britain could emerge with a global lead.
Geoff Catchpole.