THE BRITISH: RELUCTANT EUROPEANS

Professor Robert Worcester, MORI Polling Organisation, on 16 January 2002.

The speaker started by reviewing the situation in the USA in the period between 1783 and 1803, the year the state was federalised.

He discussed its development of a single currency, central bank, federalist allocation of commitments (comparable with EU `subsidiarity') and its provisions for a balance of powers and a system of justice. He noted the parallels with contemporary European developments, particularly expansion, judicial review and subsidiarity issues - all experienced then in America, his native country.

Turning to recent polling evidence in the UK, he first considered 1998 data on British feelings of belonging to their local community. While 84% felt strongly linked to Great Britain, only 35% felt that for Europe. Although 45% supported armed forces integration in Europe, only 29% supported a Central Bank of Europe and a similar percentage for a single co-ordinated foreign policy for Europe. Support for a federated United States of Europe was at a 2% level. Nevertheless, the speaker expects a United States of Europe (however described) effectively to be created in his lifetime.

Having advised Prime Ministers Wilson and Callaghan in the 1970s on public attitudes, in particular to the June 1975 referendum, when 67% supported Britain staying in the EEC, Professor Worcester analysed evidence of public attitudes since. His graphs illustrated a trend over the last decade, which indicates that support would be offered by only 48% for EU membership. Similarly, only about 30% would favour British adoption of a single currency. However, 74% think it likely to happen anyway. The public clearly favour a referendum during the lifetime of the present Parliament - 77% would force one, on the petition of a million electors.

More sophisticated analyses of people's views, based upon levels of opinions, attitudes and values, offer a range of responses - from those which are unconsidered, through those which are persuadable through information or respected authority, to those resulting from unchangeable convictions. Such an analysis of trends since 1996 demonstrates that now
33% of a 46% of `persuadables' would have to change their minds for a single currency to be adopted here. A poll on the degree of trust to be placed on advice now shows that the public would be least convinced by politicians and newspapers.

The Labour landslide of June 2001 brought a change of leadership in the Conservative Party and four more years for Blair as Prime Minister. In the speaker's view there will be no referendum during the present Parliament because Blair will be cautious, the Liberal Democrats cannot force a referendum and by mid-2002 losses in by-elections, local government and Euro-Parliament elections will convince Blair not to risk his pledged completion of his second term. At this date, however, it appears that the currency issue will not prove as problematic as it once appeared.

Professor Worcester argued that the US would prefer Britain to be involved in Europe in order to "balance the French view over NATO". The Americans' desire to remove their troops from Europe (now being reconsidered) is accompanied by a Franco-German desire to control European defence policy. Europe is opposed to the US `Star Wars' policy and (prior to September 11th 2001) to the Bush regime. However, since September 2001, British support has greatly influenced Americans and American foreign policy.

He predicted in conclusion that there would be a four-week campaign prior to an election on 5 May 2005, which will yield a Labour majority of between 80 and 100. He expects that from 2007 or so Gordon Brown will become Prime Minister and that David Davis will lead the Conservative Party. He also expects that with a decreased majority, Blair will then allow a referendum on proportional representation as well as on the euro, in order to assure Liberal Democrat support at the following election (predictably on 7 May 2009). Then a Lab-Lib Dem coalition forms the next government, with Brown as PM and Kennedy as his deputy.

During the following lengthy question-and-answer period nobody asked directly what criteria are used for choosing and wording poll questions, nor what degree of reliability can be given to sampling. However, public understanding of terms such as `collegiality', `subsidiarity' and `federalism' was queried. The speaker indicated polls (such as the `Euro Barometer') which deal with such problems, while MORI found that the term `devolution' brought a higher `don't know' level than `a separate assembly for…', which he thought would interest `spin-doctors'. He also illustrated the spread of poll questions, mentioning "age, social class, gender, region, union/non-union, phone/non-phone, voting behaviour" etc. and the overall "demographic, geographic and attitudinal differences". He found women to be more "reluctant Europeans" than men, as were older people generally. In 1975 older people favoured membership of the then `EEC' in order to "guarantee" no more European wars, whereas, then, younger people expected "ease of travel, education and job opportunities".

Challenged on the value and coverage of polls, Professor Worcester pointed out that they present responses and perceptions only, reflecting opinions (variable), attitudes (flexible), and values (entrenched). Since politicians regularly receive views from approximately only 10% of the electorate, who have particular concerns, polls that accurately present the views of the remainder are important in a democracy. All elections in Britain depend upon the 20% of `floating voters' and, because 80% of constituencies are `safe', in effect only 4% of the electorate (around 1 million people) actually determine results.

Questioned on whether views on interest rate control, EU and US attitudes to Britain, etc. are explored, the speaker indicated websites that provide such coverage. He agreed that answers to more sophisticated questions tend not to be published or are sidelined, which is why MORI provides a website for such free information. He declared that, as with the BBC, their aim is to "inform, educate and entertain" and he asserted that their contracts provide for their approval of "every word" of a newspaper poll report, although headlines and secondary comment are outside their control.

Queried on the decline of trust in politicians and the influence of spin-doctors, he reported that between 1970 and 1997 turnout ranged between 72% and 78%, but by 2001 only 59%, yet confirmation of `interest in politics' remained constant at around 60%, which indicates "disengagement rather than apathy". He noted reverses (such as leaks, the Dome, the petrol crisis, etc.) which recently affected public support, as well as the widespread use of spin-doctors, but he believes that the media and politicians now recognise the need to face issues of real public interest - health, education, transport - which should raise turnout at forthcoming elections.

Results of various polls and further information can be obtained from www.mori.com

Geoffrey Catchpole